FAT PITCHSunday, July 5
longshot scout · manual bets onlyEvery morning the AI sifts every cheap Kalshi longshot, researches the promising ones against live news and our 737k-market historical base rates, and pitches at most four. Nothing is ever placed automatically — you read, decide, and bet by hand on Kalshi. Each contract costs the listed cents and pays $1 if the event happens. Every pitch stays listed below until its market resolves, and every one is graded at resolution whether you bet it or not — that permanent record is the research.
Graded
0
review at 30
Hit rate
—
breakeven ~10.7%
Paper P&L
+$0
flat $50/pick
Your bets
+$0
1 taken · 1 open
AI spend
$4.23
last run · $4 30d
Pre-agreed kill criterion: under 10.7% hit rate after 30 graded picks → Fat Pitch retires. No renegotiating mid-streak.
Today's read · claude-fable-5
Quiet holiday-weekend board: most of today's cheap longshots are either traps (the Gracie Abrams feature markets contradict her own published tracklist) or unverifiable (July 4 MLB announcer-mention markets on games already played). The real action is in the weekly Executive Order buckets, where the price has not caught up to a documented June 29 Oval Office signing session that falls squarely inside the Jun 28-Jul 4 window.
Open pitches · 2 live — they stay here until resolved
Will the President sign more than 1 Executive Orders between Jun 28, 2026 and Jul 4, 2026? (Above 1)
B
NEW TODAY
📅 Resolves Sat, Jul 18 · in 14 days
🕐 Event window Jun 28 - Jul 4 has ALREADY ENDED - this is not a prediction. Kalshi settles from the Federal Register (the official record), and the market stays open until Jul 18 while that paperwork lands.
Same June 29 signing session, but this bucket needs MORE than one EO in the window. The plural in both the White House and C-SPAN titles ('Signs Executive Orders') and the 43-minute length of the session suggest multiple orders were signed, and Trump's Oval Office signing events in 2026 have typically produced several at once (43 EOs year-to-date). At 5c you need only ~10% real probability after fees; I put it around 40%.
Wrong if: The Presidential Actions page clearly shows only ONE June 29 item tagged 'Executive Orders' alongside a Presidential Memorandum ('Freedom to Fix') and fact sheets - if the session produced exactly one numbered EO and the rest were memoranda, this resolves NO even as the 'Above 0' bucket pays out. Federal Register publication over the next few days settles it.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/videos/president-trump-signs-executive-orders-jun-29-2026/ · https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/donald-trump/2026 · https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/
If YES: collect — → profit —
If NO: lose —
BUY YES on Kalshi →
buy opens Kalshi — then click "I bought this" to log it
Will the President sign more than 0 Executive Orders between Jun 28, 2026 and Jul 4, 2026? (Above 0)
A
NEW TODAY
✓ YOUR BET
📅 Resolves Sat, Jul 18 · in 14 days
🕐 Event window Jun 28 - Jul 4 has ALREADY ENDED - this is not a prediction. Kalshi settles from the Federal Register (the official record), and the market stays open until Jul 18 while that paperwork lands.
The measurement window (Jun 28-Jul 4) has already ended, and the White House's own website posted a video titled 'President Trump Signs Executive Orders, Jun. 29, 2026' - a ~43-minute Oval Office signing session also carried by C-SPAN - plus a June 29 entry tagged 'Executive Orders' on its Presidential Actions page. At least one EO signed in the window looks close to certain, and the Federal Register (which publishes signed EOs within days) should confirm well before the Jul 18 close. Paying 7c for what the White House record already shows is the definition of a stale price.
Wrong if: If the June 29 event turns out to have produced only presidential memoranda or proclamations (no numbered Executive Order), or if the Federal Register attributes a different signing date that falls outside the Jun 28-Jul 4 window, this resolves NO.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/videos/president-trump-signs-executive-orders-jun-29-2026/ · https://www.c-span.org/event/white-house-event/president-trump-signs-executive-orders/444581 · https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/
✅ BET LOGGED: you bet $20
at 7c on this pitch — result lands here when it resolves
Resolved
Nothing resolved yet — first picks settle around their resolve dates above.